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The Numbers Game
What if everything you believe about soccer — possession, star strikers, managerial genius — is statistically wrong? This microbook uses decades of European match data to reveal how luck, weak links, and payroll actually decide outcomes, and why defending quietly beats scoring loudly.
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Who it is for
For anyone who watches soccer passionately but suspects there's a deeper logic beneath the chaos — and for those curious about how data can overturn long-held assumptions in sports and beyond.
About the Author
Chris Anderson is the co-author of 'The Numbers Game', written alongside David Sally and published by Penguin Random House. The book applies statistics and tactical analysis to soccer, directly challenging the conventional wisdom that has long shaped how the sport is understood. Anderson's data-driven approach offers readers a fresh and rigorous perspective on the game.
View author profileLessons
- Understand why your worst defender shapes results more than your best striker
- Discover how substitution timing and weak-link management change match outcomes
- Learn to separate genuine managerial skill from statistical regression to the mean
Key Takeaways
- Soccer is roughly half skill and half luck, making single results nearly meaningless as performance indicators.
- A clean sheet is statistically worth more than two goals scored — defense wins championships more reliably than attack.
- About 92 percent of a club's final league position can be predicted simply by its total wage bill, before a ball is kicked.
More knowledge in less time
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